Monday, October 8, 2012
NEW WILMINGTON, Pa. - Dr. David Cushman, Westminster College Captain William McKee professor of economics and business, published an article in the September issue of the online journal Econ Journal Watch.
"Mankiw vs. DeLong and Krugman on the CEA's Real GDP Forecasts in Early 2009: What Might a Time Series Econometrician Have Said?" covered three economists' review of the Council of Economic Advisors' optimistic forecast of economic recovery from the recession. Greg Mankiw of Harvard expressed skepticism on his blog, while Brad DeLong of the University of California-Berkeley criticized Mankiw, and Paul Krugman of Princeton supported DeLong.
"I wondered which view an econometric forecasting exercise using standard techniques would support," Cushman said. "Proceeding as if it were still spring of 2009, I found that a hypothetical forecaster in 2009 would have supported Mankiw's skepticism."
The paper was featured on Mankiw's blog for several days and during the first week after publication it was downloaded from Econ Journal Watch 4,000 times. Cushman also presented the paper in September at the Business School of Oxford Brookes University in England, where he is currently visiting while on sabbatical.
Click here to read the paper.
Cushman, who will return as chair of the department of economic and business after his sabbatical, has been with Westminster since 2005. He earned an undergraduate degree from Stetson University, and master's and Ph.D. from Vanderbilt University. Cushman's interests focus on exchange rates and macroeconomics, and his papers have been cited about 2,000 times according to Google Scholar.
For additional information email Cushman.