Economics Professor Presented Debt Ratings Research

Dr. Daniel Fischmar, Westminster College professor of economics and business, presented a paper at the Western Economics Association meetings July 3 in San Diego.

Fischmar's presentation, "Predicting Sovereign Debt Ratings in Recent Years," attempted to predict the sovereign debt ratings assigned by bond rating companies, using publicly available data from 2009.  The paper's model, which included variables such as government balance, external debt, gross domestic product growth, and inflation, was able to account for 66 percent of the variation in ratings assigned by Moody's.

"In particular, the model was able to forecast the credit market's current doubts about ratings for the United States, United Kingdom, Ireland, and Spain," Fischmar said.

Fischmar, who joined the faculty in 1975, earned undergraduate and master's degrees from Roosevelt University and Ph.D. from Southern Illinois University, Carbondale. 

Contact Fischmar at (724) 946-7162 or email fischmde@westminster.edu for additional information.

Dr. Daniel Fischmar